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As things stand right now, there’s almost no real reason to suspect that the stock market will go higher for a bigger move.
The S&P 500 went back and forth on Thursday as we continue to hear a lot of noise in this general vicinity. I do not anticipate that this is going to get any better over the next couple of days, because we do have the jobs number coming out on Friday, which in and of itself will cause quite a bit of noise. Because of this, I would not ask too much of the market, but a short-term trade could be setting up.
Looking at the candlestick from the Tuesday session, we have formed a little bit of a shooting star, just as the candlestick from Wednesday is a little bit of a hammer. Typically, when we see a move out of this type of setup, you get a little bit of pop higher or some type of selloff. That being said, I think it is likely that at the end of the day on Thursday, the market will slow back down until 8:30 AM EST when the jobs number comes out in the United States. At that point, I would anticipate a lot of noisy behavior, and of course, the S&P 500 futures will be the epicenter of a lot of trading.
It is worth noting that we pulled back from the 50-day EMA during the trading session on Tuesday, but now that we have pulled back from there, it certainly shows that there is a bit of resistance. Even if we break above the top of the candlestick, it’s very likely that the 4300 level is your next major area of selling pressure. It is at the 4300 level and the 200-day EMA convergence that we would see a significant shift in the trend.
As things stand right now, there’s almost no real reason to suspect that the stock market will go higher for a bigger move. The conditions for a rally simply are not there, and I think it’s only a matter of time before more concern comes back into the market. Pay attention to the bond market, because it can give you a little bit of a “heads up” as to where we’re going. The market will be interesting to pay close attention to at the end of the day on Friday, because where traders park their money heading into the weekend tells you quite a bit.
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